The total investment scale of the third west east gas pipeline project may exceed 100 billion yuan Accordingtopeoplefamiliarwiththesituation,oneofthemostimportantnaturalgaspipelinesinChina,westeastgaspipeline3(hereinafterreferredtoas"westeastgaspipeline3"),isexpectedtostartconstructionthisyear.ThewholeprojectwillprobablycovertenprovincesandcitiesinChina.ItsfirststationisstilllocatedinXinjiang,thesameasthefirstandsecondlinesofwesteastgaspipeline,andpartofthepipelinetrendisparalleltothesecondlineofwesteastgaspipeline.Thetotalinvestmentscaleofthewholeprojectislikelytoexceed100billionyuan,andthegassourceisstillinCentralAsia. Secondandthirdlineorparallel Atpresent,morethan100millionhouseholdsand400millionurbanresidentsinChinausenaturalgas. Atpresent,therearetwonaturalgaspipelinesinChina,i.e.westeastgastransmissionline(hereinafterreferredtoas"Westfirstline")andwesteastgastransmissionline2(hereinafterreferredtoas"WestSecondLine").Inthewestline,XinjiangTarimgasfieldisthemaingassource,andtheYangtzeRiverDeltaisthemaintargetmarket.ThepipelinestartsfromLunnan,Tarim,Xinjiang,intheWestandendsatBaiheTown,ShanghaiintheEast,withatotallengthofabout4000kilometers.Thegastransmissioncapacityofthewholepipelinehasreached17billioncubicmetersofitsdesignedgastransmissioncapacity. Thewesteastgaspipeline2isthefirststrategicchannelprojecttointroduceforeign(CentralAsia)naturalgasresourcesinChina,withatotallengthof4978kmandeightbranchlinesof3726km.OnJune30,2011,thewholelinewasputintooperation.AccordingtothedataobtainedfromPetroChina,thegastransmissionvolumeofthesecondwesteastgaspipelinewillbe17billioncubicmetersthisyearand30billioncubicmetersnextyear. Itisunderstoodthatthegassourceofwesteastgaspipeline3isstillfromCentralAsia,anditwillstartfromXinjiangaswellasthewesteastgaspipeline1andwesteastgaspipeline2.InXinjiang,theremaybe8compressorstationsinthewesteastgaspipeline3,whichisparalleltothewesteastgaspipeline2. Whytwolinesareparallel Thereasonwhypartofthewesteastgaspipeline3isparalleltothewesteastgaspipeline2isthatCNPCandotherinterestedpartiesconsideritconvenienttomanagethenaturalgaspipeline. Forexample,inHorgosstationofwesteastgaspipeline2,dozensofemployeesareresponsiblefortheoperationandpatrolofitselectricalandmechanicalfacilities.Oncethewesteastgaspipeline3iscompleted,itcanalsobemanagedbythesamegroupofemployees. Thewesteastgaspipeline2passesthroughvariouslandformssuchasdesert,Gobi,hills,mountainsandmarshes,andsomepipelinesarealsolocatedinthelifeforbiddenzonewherepeoplearerarelyseen.Theenvironmentiscomplexandtheconstructionisverydifficult.Moreover,inthecurrentsituationofdomesticlandresourcesshortage,transportationandconstructionconditionsareverydifficult,thedesign,construction,constructionsupervisionandlatermaintenanceofnaturalgaspipelineswillinvesthugehumanandmaterialresources.Therefore,ifthewesteastgaspipeline3andthewesteastgaspipeline2areparallel,thewholeinvestmentcostandsafetyriskwillalsobereduced. AccordingtoCNPC,partofthewesteastgaspipeline3willbedirectlydeliveredtothenaturalgaspipelineofwesteastgaspipeline1andwesteastgaspipeline2throughthe"connectingline".Thedesignedannualcapacityofthewesteastgaspipeline3isabout30billioncubicmeters. ItisrumoredthattheWestthirdlinemaybedividedintothewestsection(XinjiangHorgostoNingxiaZhongwei)andtheeastsection(NingxiaZhongweitoFujianProvince),involvingXinjiang,Gansu,Ningxia,Shaanxi,Henan,Hubei,Hunan,Fujianandotherprovincesandcities,buttheabovestatementhasnotbeenconfirmedbyPetroChina.AccordingtoamanagementofCNPC,thetrunklineofthewesternthirdlinemaycoveratotaloftenprovincesorautonomousregions. Theproductionofthewesteastgaspipeline3willprobablyalleviatethenaturalgasdemandofmanyprovincesandcitiesinChina.In2010,China'snaturalgasconsumptionhasreached110billioncubicmeters,andthedomesticnaturalgasproductionhasalsoreached95billioncubicmeters.Relevantexpertspredictthatthisyear'sdomesticnaturalgasconsumptionwillcontinuetoincreaseto130billioncubicmeters,"thesupplygapmaybearound20%to30%."ACNPCinsidersaid. Theconstructionandoperationofthewesteastgaspipeline3mayalsopromotethereformofnaturalgaspricesinChina.Atpresent,therearetwogassourcesofwesteastgaspipeline2andwesteastgaspipeline3inChina,whichcomefromCentralAsia.ThemanagementofCNPCWestPipelineCompanypointsoutthatthereisanobviouspricedifferencebetweendomesticandforeignnaturalgasprices.Atpresent,theexfactorypriceofnaturalgasinChinaisabout1.18yuan/m3,andXinjiangisthedomesticgassourcewithlowerprice. CentralAsia'snaturalgasislinkedtocrudeoilandotherproducts,andadjustedquarterlyorsemiannually.Assumingthatcrudeoilis60USdollarsperbarrel,thepriceofoverseasnaturalgastoHorgosis2.15yuanpercubicmeter.Ifthepipelinetransportationfeeisadded,accordingtothecurrentoilprice,itis1.7yuanpercubicmeterupsidedown.Sincethewesteastgaspipeline2wasputintooperation,PetroChinahasimported11.4billioncubicmetersofCentralAsiannaturalgas,withalossofmorethan10billionyuan.Ifthewesteastgaspipeline3isopened,thesupplyofdomesticnaturalgaswillbesupplementedandthepriceofdomesticnaturalgaswillbeadjusted.However,thelossofChina'soilimporttoCentralAsiawillalsobeincreased.

2019-02-27

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Focus: manufacturing industry supports the future of Asian developing countries ThefurtherupgradingofAsianmanufacturingindustryisfacingaseveretestundertheinfluenceofthesluggisheconomicoutlookoftheUSandEuropeandthepossibledeclineofexports.Recently,thepurchasingmanagers'index(PMI)ofglobalandnationalmanufacturingindustrypublishedcontinuouslyshowsthatglobalmanufacturingoutputandorderstendtodecline.JPMorgan'slatestglobalPMIindexfellto50.1%inAugustfrom50.7%inJuly.Byconvention,areadingabove50%indicatesanoverallexpansionofthemanufacturingsectorandviceversa.Obviously,theglobalmanufacturingindustryisinacriticalstageofcontinuousriseordecline. Increasingdomesticdemandisexpectedtooffsettheadverseimpactofexternalenvironment Asiaisthebaseofglobalmanufacturing.InmostAsiancountries,manufacturingismoredevelopedthanserviceindustry.ASEANandChina,JapanandSouthKorea(10+3)takemanufacturingastheirexportpillar.AccordingtothedataoftheAsianDevelopmentBank,in2009,Chinaaccountedfor13%oftheglobalexportsofmanufacturingproducts,ASEAN10countriesaccountedfor6.1%,Japan6%,SouthKorea3.7%,and"10+3"accountedfor29%intotal.Amongtheglobalmachineryandtransportationequipmentexports,"10+3"accountsfor31%. Accordingtotheanalysis,Asianmanufacturingindustrywasgreatlyimpactedbytheinternationalfinancialcrisisin2008.Sincethen,majorAsianmanufacturingcountrieshaveadjustedtheirexportstructureandfocusedondevelopingnewexportmarkets.ThedomesticdemandofAsiancountrieshasalsoincreasedrapidlyinrecentyears,whichhasincreasedtheabilityto"digest"manufacturingproductsintheregion.Accordingtotherecentlyreleasedpurchasingmanagers'indexofAsiancountries,althoughthenewexportorderdatahasdeclined,theoverallneworderandemploymentdataaregrowingatthesametime,whichshowsthatmoreneworderscomefromthelocalmarket,andtheimprovementofdomesticdemandisexpectedtooffsettheadverseimpactoftheexternalenvironment. ThedevelopmentofmanufacturingindustryhasbecomeanimportantreasontoimprovethelivingstandardsofpeopleinAsiancountries,andtheimprovementoflivingstandardsisconducivetotheexpansionofmanufacturingindustry.Inaninterviewwithourreporter,DUIjingguilang,asenioreconomistatthePhilippineNationalBureauoftheAsianDevelopmentBank,saidthatmanufacturingindustryisthepillarofacountry'seconomicdevelopment.ThemainwayformostdevelopingcountriesinAsiatoimprovetheireconomyandreducepovertyistorelyonthecontinuousdevelopmentofmanufacturingindustry. LargemultinationalcompaniesarelikelytoinvestmoreinAsia ZhuangJuzhong,deputychiefeconomistoftheAsianDevelopmentBank,toldourreporterthatcomparedwithLatinAmericancountries,Asianmanufacturingindustryhastheadvantagesoflowlaborprice,highquality,abundanthumancapital,stableoverallpoliticalandinvestmentenvironment.Inaddition,China,Indiaandothercountrieshavebroadmarkets,whichmakeAsiathemaininvestmenttargetofglobalmanufacturingenterprises. Accordingtotheworldinvestmentreport2011releasedrecentlybytheUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeanddevelopment,foreigndirectinvestmentintoSouthAsia,EastAsiaandSoutheastAsiaincreasedby24%in2010,reachingUS$300billion,accountingfornearlyaquarteroftheglobaltotal.In2010,FDIintoASEANmorethandoubledtoUS$79billion.ThereportpredictsthatAsianeconomieshavemadegreatprogressinregionaleconomicintegration,andthedevelopmentenvironmentofthewholeregionwillbemoreconducivetoattractingforeigninvestment. Accordingtotheanalysis,Asia'sadvantagesinthefieldofmanufacturingarehardtobereplacedbyotherregionsintheworld.Althoughdevelopedeconomieswillfocusonboostingtherecoveryofmanufacturingindustryinordertoincreaselocalemploymentrateinthefuture,largemultinationalcompaniesinthesecountriesareunlikelytomovebackfactoriesalreadyestablishedinAsiaandotherregionsoftheworld,especiallylabor-intensiveindustries.Onthecontrary,duetotheuncertaindomesticeconomicprospectandmoreprominentmanufacturingandmarketadvantagesinAsia,largemultinationalcompaniesarelikelytoincreaseinvestmentinAsia.Sincelastyear,thistrendhasbeenveryobvious. Onthewhole,theproblemsindevelopedeconomieshavenotweakenedtheprofitabilityoftheirenterprises.Inthefuture,theseenterpriseswillbemoreactiveintheglobalinvestmentandM&Aactivities,whichislikelytobeanopportunityforAsiancountrieswithmanufacturingadvantagestoattractmoreforeigninvestment. Inthesecondquarterofthisyear,U.S.enterprisescontinuedtoaccumulateprofitsandcutspending,withthetotalamountofcashandotherliquidassetsheldbyenterprisesincreasingto$2.047trillion,up4.5%fromthefirstquarter,accordingtotheFederalReserve'sexpressreportreleasedonthe16th.CorporatecashholdingsarethehighestsincetheFedbeganthesurveyin1945.Bloomberg'spreviousforecastshowedthatJapanesecompanieswithatotalof$2.4trillionincashwouldseektoacquireoverseastoimproveyields. ThedevelopmentofAsianmanufacturingindustryisalsoacceleratingtheinteractionwithintheregion,formingasituationofstrengtheningtheproductionchainthroughcompetitionandcomplementarity.Forexample,inthesamemanufacturingindustry,Vietnam,IndonesiaandothercountrieshavemorecostadvantagesthanChinaintheproductionofclothingandshoes,butrelevantmachineryandequipmentneedtobeimportedfromChina.About$35to$40ofevery$100ofChina'sprocessingandproductionexportstoEur

2019-02-27

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The prospect of slowdown in China's construction machinery industry is still promising 上半年，我国工程机械行业总体呈现出先扬后抑的局面。在经历一季度的爆发式增长之后，4月的行业销量开始出现大幅度环比下降，此后的5月和6月继续保持下滑态势。可以说，工程机械行业2010年的高速增长态势到2011年4月出现了逆转。这是否将成为行业的拐点，业界对此十分关注。　　工程机械行业增速放缓，销量下滑　　据中国工程机械工业协会的统计数据显示，2011年一季度，全国工程机械行业主要企业主要产品销售收入同比增长56.6%，销量同比增长53.3%;1～4月销售收入同比增长51.8%，销量同比增长39.4%;1～5月销售收入同比增长47%，销量同比增长32%。可见，2011年前5个月，工程机械行业销售收入和销量的累计同比增速逐月放缓，且降幅显著。其中，销售收入增速比一季度下降近10个百分点，销量则下降21.3个百分点。　　从2011年4月开始，包括挖掘机、装载机、推土机、起重机在内的主要工程机械产品的销售形势急转直下，销量开始大幅回落，5月和6月的绝对销量进一步萎缩。统计数据显示，4月，挖掘机销量在3月创出月度新高后出现下降，环比降幅达38.79%;装载机同比下降2.86%，环比下降28.27%;推土机同比增长1.2%，环比下降32.81%。5月，挖掘机销量同比首现2011年以来的负增长，同比下降12.4%，同时，环比降幅进一步扩大至47.8%;装载机销量同比虽然保持稳定，但是环比下滑21.3%;推土机销量同比下降34%，环比下降26.1%。6月，挖掘机、装载机和推土机销量继续下滑，环比降幅分别为27.6%、14.8%和14.5%，不过，均较上月略有收窄。　　针对工程机械行业增速放缓，尤其是部分龙头产品销量大幅下降的情况，“拐点论”一时不绝于耳。部分业内人士表示，工程机械发展的新拐点已经显现出来，行业以往的高增长很难重现，今后或将呈现低增长态势，甚至在多个月份出现下滑。　　近期国家出台的支持水利设施建设以及保障房建设的相关政策对工程机械行业仍有一定的拉动作用，拐点是否已经到来尚需观察，不过，一个行业长期的超高速增长是不可持续的，需要调整和理性回归。　　行业景气度回落，需求下降是主因　　一般而言，工程机械行业销售有淡季与旺季之分，4月销量微量下滑是正常的季节波动，但是2011年4月整个行业出现30%的降幅的确少见。究其原因，主要是前期销售透支及国家宏观经济调控导致市场需求下降。　　目前，工程机械市场竞争已趋白热化。2011年一季度，为了抢占更多的市场份额，各厂商采取了不断升级的销售手段或过度营销，从而透支了部分市场需求。从工程机械行业主要上市公司的市场表现来看，一些企业采用按揭、零首付、减免融资租赁利息等方式进行大力促销，导致一季度销量同比大幅增长43.06%，部分用户需求提前释放。与此同时，整个工程机械行业的应收账款余额也高达1003.7亿元，同比年初大幅增长69.5%，使得该行业经营性现金流日益紧张，经营现金流净额同比出现大幅下降。　　2011年以来，为了调控宏观经济，国家出台一系列的金融政策，限制了房地产等行业的信贷额度。信贷紧缩对工程机械行业的影响主要体现在两方面：一是影响到行业下游需求，主要是由于部分在建工程项目的施工进度延缓，以及部分原计划开工工程推迟开工;二是影响到工程机械企业的营销力度，从4月开始，部分企业加强了风险控制，主动收缩了信贷销售的占比。目前，信贷收紧对工程机械销售的影响还无法量化计算，预计全年销售情况都将受到影响。　　多重利好因素，未来前景可期　　由于国家实施货币紧缩政策，工程机械需求短时期下滑态势可能还会持续一段时间。但从长期来看，保障性住房、水利建设、铁路建设和出口复苏等将为行业发展提供新的动力。　　2011年7月12日召开的国务院常务会议提出，要完善相关政策措施，加大政府投入和贷款支持力度，确保1000万套保障性住房在11月底前全部开工建设。这意味着下半年全国保障房建设有望迎来高峰期，将直接带动工程机械，尤其是土方机械与混凝土机械的市场需求。　　水利建设也将有望成为工程机械行业新的增长点。2011年中央一号文件着眼水利建设，提出加大公共财政对水利的投入，力争今后10年全社会水利年均投入比2010年高出一倍。预计下半年水利投资有望加速落实，水利建设投资项目将大规模开工，工程机械行业将从中受益。　　工程机械出口在快速增长。全球经济2011年逐步回暖，对工程机械的需求增加。2011年1～4月，我国工程机械行业出口金额42亿美元，比上年增长53.3%。其中，累计出口整机27.1亿美元，同比增长52.5%;零部件出口14.9亿美元，同比增长54.8%。　　尽管当前工程机械行业增速放缓，但综合考虑多种利好因素，中国工程机械工业协会预计，2011年全行业销售收入将增长17%左右，出口额将增长25%以上，恢复到2008年的历史最高水平。　　加快转型升级，实现“十二五”规划目标　　2011年7月31日，中国工程机械行业“十二五”发展规划正式发布。规划指出，按照调结构转变增长方式的发展思路，预测到2015年我国工程机械行业的销售规模将达到9000亿元，年平均增长率大约为17%，其中出口260亿美元左右。2015年，全行业销售收入和出口额均比2010年翻一番以上。　　为了实现上述目标，工程机械行业应按照规划提出的发展战略，不断加快转型升级的步伐，把推进自主创新作为企业转变发展方式的中心环节，充分发挥科技引领和支撑作用，协同推进重大科技专项实施，加强行业基础、共性技术研究，着力突破产业核心技术和关键技术，尤其是实现关键零部件的自主化，发展高端装备制造，全面提升企业的核心竞争力，尽快完成由制造大国向制造强国的转变。　　此外，在产业升级过程中，一方面要寻找新的市场增长点，淘汰落后产能，把有限的资源引导和集中配置到行业发展的薄弱环节上，同时要警惕部分高端产品产能的盲目扩张，防止出现过度重复建设，避免区域产能结构趋同，从宏观角度加强协调，保持总量供需平衡;另一方面要积极开拓国际市场，尤其是新兴市场，优化出口产品结构，提高国际合作水平。

2020-02-20

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Machinery sales seasonally pick up the industry valuation safety margin is emerging Construction machinery sector underperformed the market in September.Construction machinery fell-9.51%in September,compared with-3.01%for the Shanghai composite index and-3.54%for the csi 300 index.Construction machinery continued to underperform the market

2019-02-27

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