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The prospect of slowdown in China's construction machinery industry is still promising
In the first half of this year, China's construction machinery industry has taken on the situation of developing first and then restraining. After the explosive growth in the first quarter, the industry's sales began to decline sharply in April, and then continued to decline in May and June. It can be said that the high-speed growth trend of construction machinery industry in 2010 was reversed in April 2011. Whether this will become the turning point of the industry, the industry is very concerned about it.
The growth of construction machinery industry slows down and the sales volume declines
According to the statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in the first quarter of 2011, the sales revenue of main products of major enterprises in the construction machinery industry increased by 56.6% and 53.3% year-on-year; the sales revenue from January to April increased by 51.8% and 39.4% year-on-year; the sales revenue from January to May increased by 47% and 32% year-on-year. It can be seen that in the first five months of 2011, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of sales revenue and sales volume of construction machinery industry slowed down month by month, with a significant decline. Among them, the growth rate of sales revenue decreased by nearly 10 percentage points compared with the first quarter, while the sales volume decreased by 21.3 percentage points.
Since April 2011, the sales situation of major construction machinery products, including excavators, loaders, bulldozers and cranes, has been in a sharp turn, and the sales volume has started to fall sharply, and the absolute sales volume in May and June has further shrunk. Statistics show that in April, excavator sales fell after reaching a monthly high in March, down 38.79% on a month on month basis; loader sales fell 2.86% on a year-on-year basis, down 28.27% on a month on month basis; bulldozer sales increased 1.2% on a year-on-year basis, down 32.81% on a month on month basis. In May, the sales volume of excavators decreased by 12.4% year-on-year to the first time since 2011, while the decline further expanded to 47.8% month-on-month; the sales volume of loaders remained stable year-on-year, but fell by 21.3% month-on-month; the sales volume of bulldozers fell by 34% year-on-year, 26.1% month-on-month. In June, the sales volume of excavators, loaders and bulldozers continued to decline, with a decline of 27.6%, 14.8% and 14.5% on a month on month basis, respectively. However, they all narrowed slightly compared with the previous month.
In view of the slowdown in the growth rate of the construction machinery industry, especially the sharp decline in the sales volume of some leading products, "turning point theory" has been heard for a while. Some industry insiders said that the new turning point of construction machinery development has emerged, the industry's previous high growth is difficult to reproduce, or will present a low growth trend in the future, or even decline in several months.
Recently, the relevant policies issued by the state to support the construction of water conservancy facilities and guarantee the construction of housing still have a certain pulling effect on the construction machinery industry. It remains to be seen whether the turning point has arrived. However, the long-term super high-speed growth of an industry is unsustainable and needs adjustment and rational return.
The main reason for the decline of industry prosperity is the decrease of demand
Generally speaking, the sales of construction machinery industry can be divided into off-season and peak season. The slight decline of sales in April is a normal seasonal fluctuation, but the 30% decline of the whole industry in April 2011 is indeed rare. The main reason is that the pre-sale overdraft and the national macroeconomic regulation and control lead to the decline of market demand.
At present, the market competition of construction machinery has become white hot. In the first quarter of 2011, in order to seize more market share, the manufacturers have taken upgrading sales means or over marketing, which overdraw part of the market demand. From the perspective of market performance of major listed companies in the construction machinery industry, some enterprises vigorously promoted their sales by means of mortgage, zero down payment, reduction of financial lease interest, etc., resulting in a significant increase of 43.06% in sales volume in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, and the demand of some users was released in advance. At the same time, the balance of accounts receivable of the whole construction machinery industry is also up to 100.37 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 69.5% over the beginning of the year, which makes the industry's operating cash flow increasingly tense, and the net operating cash flow significantly decreased over the same period.
Since 2011, in order to control the macro-economy, the state has issued a series of financial policies, limiting the credit lines of real estate and other industries. The impact of the credit crunch on the construction machinery industry is mainly reflected in two aspects: first, it affects the downstream demand of the industry, mainly due to the delay in the construction progress of some projects under construction and the delay in the commencement of some original planned projects; Second, it affects the marketing strength of construction machinery enterprises. Since April, some enterprises have strengthened risk control and actively reduced the proportion of credit sales. At present, the impact of credit tightening on the sales of construction machinery cannot be quantified, and it is expected that the annual sales will be affected.
Multiple favorable factors and promising future
Due to the implementation of monetary tightening policy, the demand for construction machinery is likely to decline for a short period of time. But in the long run, indemnificatory housing, water conservancy construction, railway construction and export recovery will provide new impetus for the development of the industry.
At the executive meeting of the State Council held on July 12, 2011, it was proposed to improve relevant policies and measures, increase government investment and loan support, and ensure that 10 million sets of indemnificatory housing will be constructed before the end of November. This means that the second half of the national security housing construction is expected to usher in a peak period, which will directly drive the market demand of construction machinery, especially earth moving machinery and concrete machinery.
Water conservancy construction is also expected to become a new growth point of construction machinery industry. In 2011, the No.1 document of the Central Committee focused on water conservancy construction and proposed to increase public financial investment in water conservancy, striving to double the annual average investment of water conservancy in the next 10 years compared with 2010. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the implementation of water conservancy investment is expected to be accelerated, water conservancy construction investment projects will be started on a large scale, and the construction machinery industry will benefit from it.
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